灰色系统理论在医院总收入预测中的应用

The application of the gray system theory to forecast the gross income of the hospital

目的应用GM（1，1）模型预测医院总收入。方法利用2002--2010年某医院总收入建立GM（1，1）灰色预测模型，对建立的模型进行拟合。同时，对2011年的医院总收入进行预测，采用2011年此医院实际总收入验证模型的预测效果，评价指标为平均相对误差。结果针对某医院总收入建立的GM（1，1）模型决定系数R。为0．9827；2002—2010年的拟合平均相对误差为3．76％，对2011年进行预测，预测值与实测值的相对误差为3．87％。结论GM（1，1）模型可用于医院总收入的预测，且具有科学性和实用性。

Objective To apply the GM （ 1,1 ） model to forecast the gross income of the hospital. Methods The GM （ 1,1 ） model was developed based on the gross income of the hospital from 2002 to 2010 and the model was fitted. The forecast was made for the gross income of the hospital in 2011 the model was tested with the data in 2011. Average relative error was used to validate the predictability of the model. Results The R2 of GM （ 1,1 ） model for the gross income of the hospital was 0. 982 7. The average fitting relative error for the gross income of the hospital of 2000 to 2010 was 3.76%. The Average relative error be- tween the predicting value and real value was 3.87%. Conclusion The GM （ 1,1 ） model can be used to forecast the gross in- come of the hospital, and it is scientific and practical.