人类心血管病死亡风险评估技术与方法的研究

Study of assessment technology and methods for the death risks caused by cardiovascular disease

目的建立人类心血管病死亡风险评估理念、基本理论框架、技术与方法，为风险预测和控制管理提供科学依据。方法针对高危、患病、急性心血管病事件及其死亡人群，以及致死危险因素和死因进行全程分层分析，建立危害性、脆弱性、防控能力三类评价综合指标体系，确定风险特征与分级。遵循心血管病致死规律和科学逻辑关系，将三类评价指标转换为疾病严重程度和发生的可能性两类指标。采用风险矩阵法确定风险等级。指标体系及权重依次依据风险评估标准、循证医学、层次分析法、头脑风暴法，德尔菲法，并验证其可靠性和可行性。结果提出人类心血管病死亡风险评估的基本思路，基本理论框架和评估指标体系，建立了人类心血管病风险评估技术与方法。结论本文从风险、公众健康风险和心血管病风险分析，较为全面系统地构建人类心血管病死亡风险模型，提出相关理念、基本理论框架，首次提出综合评估技术和方法，为人类心血管死亡风险评估提供了技术支持和科学依据。

Objective To create cardiovascular disease （CVD） mortality risk assessment concept, theoretical framework, technology and methods, and provide valuable preference for minimizing the risks. Methods To analyze cardiovascular related fatal risk factors and causes of death for the different groups, those with high risks, patients with CVD, and those with other types of fatal diseases, and build up the comprehensive evaluation indexes system, including hazard, vulnerability and capacity to make sure risk profile and level. Abiding by rule of cardiovascular disease death and scientific logical relationship, evaluation indexes can be converted to severity of illness and probability. According to risk profile of CVD, use risk matriX method to ensure its risk level. In line with risk assessment standards, evidence-based medicine, analytic hierarchy process, brainstorming by experts, Delphi method or combining with methods make sure index system and weight, and verify the reliability and feasibility. Results The new concept, the basic theoretical framework and evaluation index system for cardiovascular disease mortality risk assessment were presented, as well as the risk assessment technology and methods. Conclusion The CVD death risk assessment was approached comprehensively and systematically for the first time. The basic evaluated theories, techniques, and methods were brought out. They are believed to serve as the valuable preference and technical support for CVD death risk assessment.