中日韩贸易结构的变迁及影响因素分析

The Analysis of Changing Pattern of Trade Structures in China,Japan and South Korea

文章通过测算1962—2010年中日韩三大类产品的贸易特化系数得出:中日韩三国的贸易结构升级呈现出明显的阶段性和"赶超",贸易竞争力按初级产品→一般产品→机械类产品的路径变化。韩国和中国的贸易结构升级较快,呈现向日本贸易结构收敛的明显趋势,这表明日韩、日中的贸易竞争性在增强,但日本"头雁"的领先地位并未改变。三国贸易结构的演变受内部和外部因素影响,其中,国际投资和国际贸易在国家间技术和资金传递上有重要作用。

By calculating Trade Specialization Coefficient of three categories from 1962 to 2010 in China,Japan and South Korea,this paper shows the changing path of trade structures in these 3 countries.（1）The changing pattern of trade advantage follows the upgrading path primary products-general products-mechanical products.（2）The trade structure upgrading of South Korea and China is faster and more complicated than Japan,and the convergence trend and Catching-up to Japan is very obvious.This means more competitive than complementary trade structure among China,Japan and South Korea.（3）Japan is and will still be the leading-goose in East Asia at least in over 20 years.The evolution of trade structure is determined by both internal and external factors,the primary one of which is RD and innovation.Foreign investment and trade also play an very important role in ＂passing on＂ capital and technology to drive trade structure upgrading.