城乡预期、长期保障和迁移劳动力的城市融入

Urban-rural Expectation,Long-term Security and the Migrant Labor's Willingness of Urban Integration

农村迁移劳动力的市民化和城市融入问题已成为当前学术界和政府管理者关注的焦点。本文构建了一个基于城乡预期和长期保障的迁移劳动力城市融入模型,并利用1998年和2005年武汉市迁移劳动力调查数据验证了这一模型,计量结果显示,城乡预期和长期保障状况是影响迁移劳动力城市融入意愿的重要因素,但是其影响效应有着明显的时代差异。农村劳动力的城乡迁移和个人发展预期逐渐趋于理性;在1998年左右迁移劳动力是否打算融入城市更多地是考虑城乡收入差异,而在2005年左右开始重视长期保障问题。以农村家庭禀赋为基础形成的长期保障效应,在一定程度上削弱了迁移劳动力融入城市的动力。本文的研究有助于深入理解迁移劳动力城市融入影响机制的变迁。

The objective of this paper is to illustrate and examine the influence of urban-rural expectation and long-term security on urban integration of migrant labor.The issue of rural labor migration's citizenization and urban integration has become a focus of concern from academics and government regulators.This article builds a model that based on urban-rural expectation and long-term security,and then uses the survey which describes the migrant labor situation of Wuhan in 1998 and 2005 to verify it.The result depicts that urban-rural expectation and long-term security are important factors affecting migrant labors' willingness of urban integration,but the effects show obvious age difference.In 1998,when integrating into the cities,what is more considered by migrant labors is urban and rural income differences,while it comes to long-term security in 2005.The long-term security effects based on family endowment in rural areas,to a certain extent,have weakened the impetus of labor migration's urban integration.The finding contributes to deeply understanding the change of influence mechanism upon urban integration of migrantn labor.