国际石油价格波动对中国外贸的影响:理论综述与实证分析

Influences of International Oil Price Fluctuation on China's Foreign Trade:An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

采用季度数据,建立VAR模型并运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验等分析方法,对国际原油价格与我国对外贸易的关联性进行研究。结果显示,国际石油价格与中国进口、出口贸易额存在长期的均衡关系;国际石油价格对中国进口和出口贸易额的因果关系十分明显,且存在对称性;国际石油价格波动对中国的进、出口贸易额的影响是长期的,但在短期内(约一年)最显著,且对进口的影响比出口滞后一个季度。

Based on the quarterly data, with the ADF unit root test, Co integration test, Granger causality test and the VAR model, this paper researched the correlation between international oil price and the China＇ s foreign trade. The empirical results showed that there was a long - term equilibrium relationship between international oil price and China ~s import and export trade volume. The international oil price was very obvious causal relationship between China＇ s import and export trade volume, and they were presence of symmetry. The influences of international oil price fluctuation on China~ import and export trade volume were in the long- term, but they showed the most significant in the short term （about a year）, and the impact on imports than exports lagged one quarter.