中国通货膨胀的相依性周期

On the Codependent Cycles of Chinese Inflation

对我国通胀率、农产品价格和M2三个变量相依性周期的检验与分解表明,农产品价格周期波动剧烈,在很大程度上为"圈地"等导致的粮价波动以及诸如猪肉价格暴涨暴跌等因素对农产品价格的冲击效应。因此,将现行的粮食收购保护价改革为粮食生产保护价与销售保护价,将减弱粮价等因素对农产品价格和通胀的冲击强度。农产品价格与通胀率和M2的周期弱相依,M2与通胀率的周期强相依,它们周期成分的交点形成"梭形",说明我国货币政策目标在抑制通胀和促进增长之间交替转换。在农产品价格周期处于基本平稳时,可实施适度宽松的货币政策刺激经济增长,但其扩张幅度应以M2的相依性周期成分扩大至1.5左右为宜;在农产品价格快速上涨或者周期成分的上升期,应以抑制农产品价格为先导,刺激经济增长的适度宽松货币政策宜延缓至农产品价格周期处于平稳或者下行期,再予以实施。

A test and decomposition of the codependent cycles of CIP, APPI and M2 reveals that the cyclic fluctuations of agricultural product price largely stem from the grain price fluctuations induced by factors such as 'land enclosure' and the impact of the abrupt changes of pork price and other factors on APP. Therefore, changing the grain purchasing price protection to grain production and sales protection will reduce the impact of grain price and other factors on APP and inflation. The weak cyclic codependence between APP and CPI and M2, along with the strong cyclic codependence between M2 and CPI, has given rise to a 'shuttleshaped' intersection of cyclic elements. This suggests that China’s monetary policy goal has been alternating between curbing inflation and stimulating growth. When the APP cycle is basically stable, China can implement a moderately easing policy to stimulate economic growth, which, however, must be based on a 1.5 or so increase of the codependent cycle elements of M2. When APP rises sharply or is in the rising phase of cycle elements, China should emphasize the APP control, and should delay the moderately easing monetary policy till the APP cycle becomes stable or is in the downlink phase.