摘要
To understand complex state behavior, a detailed study of strategic behavior is needed. To get rid of what is out-of-date and take in fresh perspectives, we need to eliminate the current methodological bottleneck and take full advantage of multivariate research methods to explore the complex interactions among variables and develop a basic analytical framework. First, strategic behavior should be divided into four stages, i.e., strategic assessment, strategic decision-making, strategic mobilization and strategic implementation, then the factors affecting each stage should be clarified and their interactions grasped. A preliminary framework for understanding state strategic behavior will help to promote the in-depth development of this field of research.
理解复杂的国家行为需要更为精细的战略行为研究。若要在研究上吐故纳新,应该突破当前的方法论瓶颈,充分利用多元的研究方法,探讨各变量之间的复杂相互作用,构建一个基本的分析框架。这首先需要将战略行为分为战略评估、战略决策、战略动员和战略执行四个阶段,然后需要厘清影响每个战略行为阶段的作用因素,并基本把握各种因素之间的相互作用。一个理解国家战略行为的初步框架将有助于推动战略行为研究的深入发展。
基金
support from the National Social Science Foundation Project "Research on the Analytical Framework and Instruments of International Strategic Studies"(No.:12BZZ053)
the Ministry of Education Key Institute of the Humanities and Social Sciences(Center of American Studies,Fudan University) Major Project "Strategic Behavior in History:A Comparison between the U.S.and Other Countries"(No.:11JJD810017)
