ATIS和恶劣天气下的随机交通分配模型

Stochastic traffic assignment model under ATIS and adverse weather conditions

为了研究恶劣天气(不同降雨密度)引起的道路网络供给和需求不确定性对装备和未装备ATIS用户的出行行为产生的影响,本文提出一个内生、平衡ATIS市场占有率和遵从率下,基于路径运行时间可靠度的交通分配模型.装备ATIS的用户也并不总是遵从ATIS提供的建议.因此,所有用户被分为三种类型:装备ATIS且遵从ATIS建议的用户,装备ATIS但不遵从ATIS建议的用户以及未装备ATIS的用户.用户在选择出行路线时会综合考虑路径运行时间不确定性、天气条件以及ATIS的建议.此外,本模型使用基于Logit的随机用户平衡模型,考虑用户的出行成本感知误差.本文提出的模型可以表示为一个等价的基于路径流量的变分不等式问题.通过算例分析证明所提出模型和算法的有效性.

In order to study the different travel behaviours of users equipped with advanced traveler infor- mation systems （ATIS） and users unequipped with ATIS under uncertainties conditions in both demand and supply sides of a road network due to adverse weather conditions with different rainfall intensities, a path travel time reliability-based traffic assignment model under endogenous equilibrated market pene- tration and compliance rate of ATIS was established. Those equipped users may not always comply with the advice provided by ATIS. Therefore users are divided into three classes： users with ATIS and in com- pliance with ATIS advice, users with ATIS but without compliance with ATIS advice, and users without ATIS. Users will consider uncertainty of the path travel time, weather conditions, and ATIS advice in their path choice decisions. Furthermore, the model also considers users＇ perception errors using a Logit-based stochastic user equilibrium framework. The proposed model is formulated as an equivalent variational inequality problem in terms of path flows. Numerical examples illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model and solution algorithm.