土石坝震害快速评估方法研究

Study on rapid assessment methods for seismic damage to earth-rock dams

土石坝震害评估经验统计模型具有概念清晰、方法简单、计算量小等优点,成为应用最为广泛的模型之一。但是随着震害资料的积累以及其自身不足,需要对其进行改进完善。本文对袁一凡1提出的统计回归模型,补充了汶川地震土石坝震害资料,并依据灰色关联分析理论对经验统计模型中各影响因子的权重进行了计算分析,给出了经验统计公式新的回归参数;此外,还对我国东部和西部地区的土石坝进行了分区研究,并给出了不同地区的回归统计参数,经检验本文新给出的回归系数使得经验统计模型理论上更加合理,并提高了评估准确率。

Empirical statistical model has the advantage of simple, convenient and small amount of calculation which comes to be one of the most widely used model of the earth dam earthquake damage assessment method, However, with the accumulation of earthquake damage information and its own shortcomings, the model needs to be improved. In this paper, earth dam damage data from Wenchuan earthquake are added to the empirical statistical model, which was developed by YUAN Yifan^1] , and each damage factor weights are recalculated and analyzed on the basis of gray relational analysis theory, then regression coefficients are adjusted. Besides, the earth-rock dams in Chinese eastern and western regions are studied according to their location, and the regression statistical parame- ters of these regions are presented. After a series of improvements, the theory of empirical statistical model becomes more reasonable, and the assessment results are more accurate.