城市建设用地扩张驱动力实证研究——基于辽宁省14市市辖区数据

Driving Forces behind Urban Land Expansion Based on Panel Data for 14 Cities in Liaoning

为考察辽宁省14市市辖区建设用地扩张的驱动力,本文采用两阶段最小二乘法对14市市辖区2000年-2010年数据进行了检验。检验结果表明:①研究期内,城市建设用地处于扩张状态,扩张速度低于同期全国水平,各城市扩张率存在差异,朝阳、营口、沈阳和大连扩张速度快于其它地区。异速增长方程LAND=aPOP2.97表明14市建设用地处于正异速生长阶段;②经济发展、人口规模、产业结构升级、反映自然地理环境的截面效应与反映政策变化的时点效应能较好地解释14市、沈阳经济区、辽宁沿海城市带3个维度的建设用地扩张,城市人口规模在3个维度都促进了建设用地扩张,其弹性系数大于经济发展、产业结构升级的弹性系数;经济发展与产业结构升级对建设用地扩张的影响方向及力度在不同维度上存在差异。

The expansion of urban land contributes to local economic development, but can also result in biodiversity loss, social security issues and national food security risks. Urban land expansion is often driven by social, economic, natural, geographical and policy factors. Liaoning province is located in northeast China and has a higher urbanization rate and industrialization level than other provinces. To investigate the driving forces behind urban land expansion in Liaoning, panel data econometric methods were used to analyze data from Shenyang, Dalian, Anshan, Fushun, Benxi, Dandong, Jinzhou, Yongkou, Fuxin, Liaoyang, Panjin, Tieling, Chaoyang and Huludao from 2000 to 2010. Results showed that urban land expansion has continued and the rate of expansion in Liaoning was lower than the national average from 2000 to 2010. Yongkou, Shenyang and Dalian have grown faster than other cities. Urban land is in a positive allometry stage and according to the allometric growth equation the scaling factor is 2.97, larger than the standard value 0.85. An equation was established to test the relationship between urban land and impact factors such as population size, gross regional product and upgrading industrial structure. Urban land expansion was explained by economic development, population size, upgrading industrial structure, cross-section effect reflecting urban characteristics, and a time effect reflecting government policies. Urban population growth had a positive effect on urban land expansion at three dimensions. Upgrading industrial structure and economic development had a positive effect on urban sprawl in 14 cities and the Liaoning Coastal Cities model, but negative effects in the Shenyang Economic Zone model. This empirical study explored the driving forces behind urban land expansion in Liaoning, but further research should be done in the future.