库兹涅茨曲线在中国的适用性研究——基于分位数回归的方法

An Applicability Study of Kuznets Curve in China: Based on the Method of Quantile Regression

运用参数和半参数分位数回归分析方法,以中国80个直辖市和地级市为研究对象,对库兹涅茨曲线形状进行实证研究,揭示中国经济发展与收入差距之间存在复杂的非线性关系。参数分位数回归结果表明,在中低分位点上呈现"U型"曲线关系,拒绝了倒U假说;而半参数分位数回归结果表明,在中低分位点,库兹涅茨曲线呈现"U型"特征,而在高分位点,呈现"W型"特征,表现为两个"U型"曲线的连接。另外,选择Theil指数和最富裕的50%人口所占收入份额这两个收入差距指标进行稳健性检验,结果表明这两个收入差距指标的分析结果与以Gini系数为收入差距指标的分析结果一致。

By employing the method of parameters and semi-parametric quantile regression, this paper makes an empirical study on the Kuznets curve with the research objects of 80 municipalities and prefecture-level cities of China to reveal the complicated non-linear relationship existing between China＇s economic development and income gap. The results of the parametric and quantile regression show that there is a ＂U-type＂ curve relationship at the lower- middle quantile site, rejecting the ＂inverted U＂ hypothesis; while the results of the semi-parametric quantile regression show that at the lower-middle quantile site, the Kuznets curve displays the characteristics of ＂U-type＂, but at the higher quantile site, it displays the characteristics of a ＂W-type＂, presenting the connection between two ＂U-type＂ curves. In addition, this study chooses the two income inequality indicators, i.e.. Theil index and the income share taken by the most affluent 50% of the population, to carry out a robustness test, the results indicate that the outcome of the analysis of these two income gap indicators coincides with the outcome of the analysis which takes Gini coefficient as the income inequality indicators.