潜在产出与要素投入关系探讨——基于制造业面板数据的实证研究

Exploration into Relation between Potential Output and Element Input

运用HP滤波法估算我国制造业各行业的潜在产出,并基于投入产出表推导的公式计算制造业行业的固定资本存量,通过对投入产出表直接消耗系数矩阵的调整,重新构造中间投入价格指数,估计制造业各行业的中间投入。在此基础上,利用制造业行业面板数据,采用Cobb-Douglas生产函数的形式,对潜在产出与要素投入之间的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,潜在产出与要素投入之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且不同行业、不同时期生产要素的贡献差异明显。

By adopting HP Filter Method the potential output of different manufacturing industries in China can be estimated and the fixed capital stock can be calculated with the formula based on chart of input and output. With the adjustment of direct consumption coefficient matrix the intermediate input price indices can be reconstructed so as to estimate the intermediate input of different manufacturing industries. Based on that, by adopting panel data of manufacturing industry and CobbDouglas production function, the relation between potential output and element input can be tested empirically. The result shows that there is a lasting balanced relation between potential output and element input and the difference of contribution of production factors in different industries and different time are evident.