摘要
本文基于历史经验和国际经验设计了中国城镇住房需求的估算方案,发现中短期内人口老龄化不会导致中国城镇住房大量过剩。城镇化和家庭规模小型化将在未来20年～30年助推中国城镇住房需求持续增加,这将使得人口老龄化对城镇住房需求的负面冲击直到2045年以后才能逐渐显现出来。通过降低住房持有不平等程度来解决中国城镇住房供需不匹配问题,可能比单纯增加住房供给更有效。
This paper designed a strategy to estimate China＇s urban housing demand in the future based on historical and international experience. The conclusion is that, in the short or medium run, population aging will not result in severe housing surplus in China＇s urban area. The negative impact of population aging will not emerge until 2045 because of the positive impact of urbanization and family miniaturization. To solve the mismatch between demand and supply of urban housing, we would recommend to eliminate housing inequality, rather than increase housing supply only.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第5期45-58,共14页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"中国人口老龄化对宏观经济的定量影响"(71273272)
