美元离岸、在岸市场利率关联检验——对发展我国人民币离岸市场的启示

A Test of Relationship between US Dollar Offshore and Onshore Market Interest Rates:Enlightenment for the Development of China’s RMB Offshore Market

国际化货币在离岸市场发展中,必然会形成有别于在岸市场的均衡价格。由于不受货币发行国的管控,离岸市场的利率变化能否左右在岸市场的利率走势,进而导致货币发行国货币政策的失效,这是我国在发展境外人民币离岸市场过程中亟待理清的问题。理论模型及实证检验证明,国际化货币的离岸市场对于货币发行国的货币政策影响有限,即并不存在离岸市场对在岸市场主导性的单向影响,而是离岸、在岸市场利率间相互影响。因此,我国发展境外人民币离岸市场不必存在过多担忧。然而,为了避免境内金融市场相关产品的定价权外移,我国也必须加快利率市场化改革和直接融资市场发展的速度,同时慎用国内产品与境外价格挂钩的定价方法。

During the development of offshore markets, any internationalized currency will certain- ly form different equilibrium price from the onshore market. During the development of RMB off- shore markets in foreign countries, such a problem should be urgently sorted out whether or not the interest rate changes in the offshore markets, out of the control of the currency issuing countries, will affect the rate tendency in the onshore markets, and further lead to the failure of the monetary policy of the currency issuing countries. The theoretical model and the empirical test prove that the offshore market of the internationalized currency only has limited impact on the monetary policy of the curren- cy issuing country, i.e. there is no dominate one-way influence of the off-shore market on the onshore market; rather, there is a correlated effect between the offshore and onshore market interest rates. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much when developing China＇s RMB offshore market in foreign countries. However, in order to avoid pricing right outward shift of the related products in domestic financial market, we must accelerate the interest rate marketization reform and the develop- ment of the direct financing markets; at the same time, the pricing method of domestic products linked with foreign prices should be used with caution.