气候变化情景下中国自然生态系统脆弱性研究

Responses of vulnerability for natural ecosystem to climate change in China

本研究以动态植被模型LPJ为主要工具,以区域气候模式工具PRECIS产生的A2、B2和A1B情景气候数据为输入,模拟了未来气候变化下中国自然生态系统的变化状况,应用脆弱性评价模型,评估中国自然生态系统响应未来气候变化的脆弱性。结果表明:未来气候变化情景下中国东部地区脆弱程度呈上升趋势,西部地区呈下降趋势,但总体上,中国自然生态系统的脆弱性格局没有大的变化,仍呈现西高东低、北高南低的特点。受气候变化影响严重的地区是东北和华北地区,而青藏高原区南部和西北干旱区受气候变化影响,脆弱程度明显减轻。气候变化情景下的近期气候变化对我国生态系统的影响不大,但中、远期气候变化对生态系统的负面影响较大,特别是在自然条件相对较好的东部地区,脆弱区面积增加较多。

Vulnerability of natural ecosystem to climate change is scientific basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, and is one of the important issues in the area of climate change and ecology. In this study, LPJ, a modified dynamical vegetation model according to features of China＇s natural ecosystems, was employed to simulate ecosystem dynamics under A2, B2 and A1B emission scenarios generated by PRECES （Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies） system. Using a vulnerability assessment model, vulnerability of natural ecosystem against climate change was evaluated in the future. Results suggest that vulnerability for China＇s natural ecosystems may strengthen in the east and weaken in the west, but the pattern of ecosystem vulnerability in China, decline from southeast to northeast, would not be altered under climate change. Ecosystem rising vulnerability may be mainly observed in temperate humid/sub-humid region and warm temperate humid/sub-humid region. Ecosystem decreasing vulnerability may be found in arid region of Northwest China and Tibetan Plateau region. In the near-term scale, natural ecosystem in China may be slightly affected by climate change. However, in mid-term and long-term scales, there may be severely adverse effect. Particularly, in the east with better water and thermal condition.