新疆特色林果业种植对气候变化的响应

Responses of characteristic horticulture plant to climate change of Xinjiang

利用全疆54个气象站点的52年气象资料,运用一元回归线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验及反距离加权空间差值法,分析全疆及四大林果基地的年平均气温、≥10oC降水及4-10月气温和降水的时空变化规律,结合指数平滑时间序列分析法、变异系数和线性倾向率,分析了苹果、葡萄、梨等几种常见特色林果产品产量、种植面积对气候变化的响应。结果表明:全疆和四大林果基地1960-2011年的气温、降水呈现线性增长的趋势,全疆整体上在20世纪80年代中后期增温增湿现象明显,进入2000年后气候暖湿化趋势更加显著,而四大林果基地气温、降水因地理位置差异而导致不同的气候变化趋势和时空分布,其中伊犁河谷林果基地气温、降水线性倾向率最大并且降水最多,吐哈盆地林果基地降水线性倾向率最小、气温线性倾向率较大并且温度最高,天山北坡和环塔里木盆地林果基地气温、降水线性倾向率基本相同,并且都在2000年以后增温、增湿趋势显著;全疆气候暖湿化的变化趋势有利于林果产品产量的提高,特别是在增温、增湿显著发生的年份后,对产量的提高作用更明显,另外增温也促进了喜温林果产品种植面积的扩大,并且由温度高的区域向温度低的区域扩展,林果产品空间种植分布趋势与自治区政府提出的四大林果基地建设布局相吻合;但是温度过高、降水过多,特别是气温、降水出现急剧增温、增湿和减温、减湿异常变化的年份对林果产品的种植影响较大,因此今后应做好极端气候变化对特色林果产品影响的预防措施。

Based on the meteorological material of the past 52 years obtained from 54 meteorological stations of Xinjiang, by using univariate regression linear inclination rate, Mann-Kendall abrupt change testing method and inverse distance weighted spatial difference method, we analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of the annual mean temperature, the precipitation above 10℃, and the temperature and precipitation from April to October in Xinjiang and four main horticulture bases. Besides, combined with exponential smoothing and linear trend rate, we analyzed the response of yield and planting area of apple, grape, pear and other kinds of horticulture products to climate change. The results show that there has been a linear growth trend in temperature and precipitation of Xinjiang and four main horticulture bases over the last 52 years. There was an obvious trend of warming and wetting from the mid- to late 1980s and the warm and humid climate trend was more significant in 2000 all over Xinjiang. However, there have been different climate change trends and the spatial and temporal distribution, as the four main horticulture bases are located in different locations. Compared to other horticulture bases, the linear growth rate of precipitation and temperature was the greatest and the precipitation was at its highest level in Yili Valley, the linear trend rate of precipitation was small and the temperature was high in Turpan-Hami Basin. The linear trend rate of temperature and precipitation on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains and Tarim Basin was basically the same, and there was a warming and wetting significant trend in 2000. The warm and humid climate trend was conducive to the improvement of production of characteristic horticulture products, and the effect was more obvious when the climate tended to be warm and wet. Furthermore the temperature increase also promoted the acreage expansion of the thermophile horticulture products, and the horticulture products plant extended from high temperature region to low temperature region. As a result, spatial distribution trends of the horticulture products plant were consistent with those of the four main horticulture bases planned by the local government. However, high temperature and excessive rainfall, especially abrupt changes （increase or decrease） of temperature, precipitation and humidity have a great impact on the horticulture products. Therefore, some concrete measures should be taken to mitigate the impact of extreme climate change on characteristic horticulture products.