四川省和江苏省现代物流与经济增长关系比较研究

Comparative Research on the Relationship Between Modern Logistics and Economic Growth of Sichuan and Jiangsu

根据协整检验和因果关系检验等计量方法,利用西部四川省和东部江苏省1978～2010年物流发展和国内生产总值的年度数据,对西部四川省和东部江苏省的物流和经济增长的关系进行了实证比较分析.结果表明,2个地区代表省份四川省和江苏省的物流发展与经济增长均存在协整关系;四川省物流发展是经济增长的单向Granger原因,江苏省经济增长是物流发展的单向Granger原因;结合所构建的误差修正模型,得出了2个地区物流与经济的长期和短期弹性系数.

According to the annual data of logistics development and GDP from 1978 to 2010, this paper has comparatively ana- lyzed the relationship between Sichuan in the west China and Jiangsu in the east China provinces by means of cointegration test and Granger-Causality test. The results indicate that there are cointegration relationships between logistics development and economic growth in two areas, there is one-way Granger reason from logistics development to economic growth in Sichuan, but there is one-way Granger reason from economic growth to logistics in Jiangsu. Moreover, based on established error correction model （ECM） of the relationship between logistics development and economic growth, the long-term and short-term elastic coefficient of logistics and economy about the two areas are obtained.