旅客运输供需结构适应性的熵分析研究

Entropy Analysis on Adaptability between Supply Structure and Demand Structure of Passenger Transportation

探讨交通运输与社会经济发展的适应性,以便为决策机构优化运输结构、改善供需结构适应关系提供参考。本文运用信息熵理论,以客运供需结构适应性为研究对象,找出目前理论研究存在的不足及与现实的不适应性,分析客运需求、供给结构的影响因素,分别建立客运需求和供给结构熵模型;构建供需结构适应性熵评价模型,提出适应性评价标准和方法。研究表明:客运供给总量不仅要适应客运总需求,而且结构也需要适应要求;两者熵值大小须一致,熵函数变化趋势、变化速率也须一致;熵函数值相对离差系数要趋于0,适应度要趋于1。

In order to investigate the adaptability between traffic ＆ transportation and social-economy development and to provide decision-making basis for decision-makers to optimize the traffic ＆ transportation structure and improve the supply-demand adaptability, the information entropy theory was applied with the adaptability between the supply structure and demand structure of passenger transportation as the object of study, the insufficiency of the present theoretical research and its inadaptability with practice were pointed out, the factors influencing the supply structure and demand structure of passenger transportation were analyzed, and the entropy models of the supply structure and the demand structure of passenger transportation were set up respectively. The entropy model for evaluation of the adaptability between the supply structure and demand structure was constructed to provide the evaluation criterions and method. The results show as follows： The supply of the gross passenger traffic volume is needed to meet the demand of the gross passenger traffic volume, and the supply structure is also required to suit the demand structure; the entropy values of the supply and demand structures need to be consistent, the entropy functions should share the same changing trend and velocity;the relative deviation coefficient of the entropy functions tends to reach O,the adaptability degree tends to reach 1.