论以民族主义宣传调控民众不满情绪的成败条件——基于数学模型的分析

On Conditions of Success or Failure in Regulating Nationalist Propaganda of Popular Discontent Emotion——Based on the Analysis of Mathematical Model

人类历史上,许多国家执政者有时会采用煽动民族主义情绪的方式转移民众视线以应对合法性危机。但此方法会同时增加民众的民族主义诉求,当执政者可能无法满足相关诉求时,民众即会产生新的不满。在煽动民族主义情绪时,执政者必然要把握尺度,不断通过评估-调整的调控方式将民众不满情绪稳定于最低水平。通过数学建模分析可发现,此调控方式有趋于失序、趋于均衡两种结果,函数弹性差值是调控成败的关键。函数弹性差值决定于社会信息化程度、社会祛魅程度和执政者公信力。

In the history, sometimes politicians will distract people by the means of incendiary nationalism to cope with the crisis of legitimacy. However, it will increase people＇s nationalist requirement. When politicians cannot meet that demand, people wiU enraged, so, politicians will grasp the scale to keep the discontent down as far as they can by the means of evaluation and adjustment. Through the analysis of mathematical model- ing, we can have the results which tend to disorder or balance. The difference between functional flexibility is the key to success or failure which be decided by the degree of social information, social disenchantment and politicians＇ credibility.