经济结构变迁下的城市化发展:实证与启示

The Urbanization Promoted by Transformation of Economic Structure:Evidence and Implication

文章以一种地理空间的视角,采用探索性空间数据分析,考察了中国内地31个省域城市化发展与经济结构变化之间的关系。实证研究的结果表明,各个省域的城市化存在全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关;第二产业水平对城市化发展的影响为正,但影响程度趋于减小;第三产业水平对城市化发展的影响亦为正,且影响程度不断上升。另外,在研究中还发现,与空间计量模型相比,普通回归模型由于忽略了空间因素,低估了第二产业对城市化的推动作用,高估了第三产业对城市化的影响程度。

From a spatial perspective, this paper studies the relationship between urbanization and transformation of economic structure in 31 provinces in China＇s mainland by Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis. Empirical results show that urbanization in each province has the spatial autocorrelation. The second industry has a positive impact on the urbanization, but the effect tends to decrease. The tertiary industry exerts positive role on urbanization, and the degree of influence is rising. Furthermore, by comparing with spatial econometric model, the paper finds that OLS model underestimates the impacts of the secondary industry and overestimates the influence of the tertiary industry due to the lack of spatial factor.