考虑风电出力不确定性的电力系统运行风险评估

Operational Risk Assessment for Power System Considering Inherent Volatility of Wind Power

采用Beta分布对风电短期预测值给定后的风电场实际出力的条件概率进行建模,结合系统中元件和负荷等的概率模型,给出了运行风险评估中应该考虑的各种不确定性模型。通过切负荷和低电压严重度函数计算了系统的EDNS和低电压风险值,最后,通过对修改的IEEE-RTS79系统进行仿真。

This paper models on the conditional probability of actual power output after knowing predictive value of wind power by Beta distribution. Then combining with the system components and load probability models, the vari- ous kinds of uncertainties to be covered in operational risk assessment are obtained. The Expected Demand not Served （EDNS） and low voltage risk are calculated by load-shedding and low voltage function. Finally, the modified/EEE- RTS79 system is simulated to verify the validity of this method.