灰色理论在操纵员管理中的应用

Application of Grey Theory in Operator Management

科学合理的操纵员管理是核安全的基础,也是核电厂人力资源管理的发展要求。尤其在三哩岛事故发生之后,操纵员管理更加受到重视。科学合理的操纵员管理的前提和基础是操纵员基本行为参数的预测和决策。灰色理论恰好解决了现行操纵员管理预测和决策中所遇到的困境。整个管理过程分为两步:首先,通过以往的操纵员行为参数的记录,建立灰色预测模型,对其今后行为进行预测;然后,使用灰色决策对其进行决策。计算结果对操纵员管理有一定的指导意义,也为操纵员提高自身素质指明了方向。灰色理论方法为今后操纵员管理提供了新的思路和方法。

Scientific and reasonable operator management is the basis of nuclear safety. It is paid more attention after the three-mile island accident. The prediction of opera- tors＇ basic behavior parameters is the premise and foundation of scientific and reasona- ble operator management. Grey theory happened to solve the dilemma encountered in prediction and decision-making of operator behavior in operator management of nuclear power plant. The procedure was divided into two steps： 1） According to the historical record of operators~ behavior parameters, a differential equation model using grey theory was set up to predict the future behavior of operators~ 2） operator management decision-making was made based on grey theory. The calculation result is not only help- ful for operator management but also useful for operators to find their shortcomings. Grey theory used in the study provides a new idea and method for future operator management in nuclear power plant.