货币政策传导机制在新疆有效性的实证研究

Empirical Research into the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Xinjiang

该文以新疆1991-2010年金融运行的相关数据为研究对象,运用基于向量自回归模型的Johans-en协整检验和脉冲响应函数等时间序列方法,分析对比国家货币政策的信贷传导和货币传导两种传导机制在新疆的实施效果,结果表明:虽然货币政策的信用渠道与货币渠道传导机制均对产出发挥作用,但是不论是对产出还是对物价的影响,信贷渠道的冲击均要大于货币渠道,表明货币政策的信贷渠道是影响新疆经济调控的主要传导渠道,最后提出改善新疆地区区域金融发展的环境,完善新疆金融机构、金融市场体系,实行必要的有区域差别的货币政策工具等政策建议。

Taking the 1991-2010 financial operation data of Xinjiang as the research object,and using the vector regression model Johansen Cointegration test and impulse response function of time sequence method,this paper contrasts the effects of two transmission mechanisms in Xinjiang, namely, national monetary policy transmission and credit monetary transmission. The results show that although the cred- it and monetary channel transmission mechanisms of monetary policy affect output, the influence of cred- it channel on both the output and prices is greater than that of currency channel, which displays that the credit channel is the key transmission channel that affects the economic control in Xinjiang. Finally, this paper gives some advice on improving the financial environment, perfecting monetary facility and system as well as carrying out different currency policies in various areas in Xinjiang.