从农户粮食供需均衡看农户储粮影响因素

On the Influential Factors of Farmers' Grain Storage in View of the Equilibrium of Grain Supply and Demand

在当代中国,基于粮食安全的国家粮食储备、地方政府粮食储备和农户粮食储备成为政府格外重视的问题和国内外学者共同关注的焦点。该文基于2006-2009年山西省农户固定观察点数据,通过建立农户粮食生产、储备、需求及粮食供需均衡方程组,利用三阶段最小二乘法对我国农户粮食储备行为的影响因素进行实证分析。对农户粮食生产、储备、需求联立方程组模型进行估计后发现,农户粮食储备行为主要受粮食产量、非农现金纯收入、对真实利率的预期、粮食市场真实价格等因素的影响。

Nowadays in China,the national ,local and farmers＇ grain storage has become one of the key issues of the central government and the focus of scholars both home and abroad. Based on the data from 2006 to 2009 from the fixed observation point in Shanxi, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the influential factors of farmers＇ grain storage by an equation of farmers＇ grain production, storage, demand and supply as well as the method of least squares. The study finds that the farmers＇ grain storage is influenced by the grain yield, non-agri- cultural net cash income, the expectation of real rates and the grain＇s market price, etc.