我国城市人口增长结构分解及其趋势研究

Studies on China's Urban Population Growth Structure and Its Trend

文章选用1985-2011年中国城市人口增量数据进行实证研究,通过对人口增量结构分解并分析各部分年度发展趋势,得到如下结论:从20世纪80年代中期到21世纪初,因市镇的新建、扩建以及城市地域的重新划分而增加的城市人口年均占城市人口总增量近40%,高于自然增长和城乡迁移占比,导致城市化水平的滞后及后续发展困难;自2005年之后,城市人口增长构成逐渐趋向合理,新增城镇人口和农村城镇净迁入人口规模趋稳,城乡迁移则构成了城市人口增量的主要部分,其中农村人口的非户籍城乡迁移所占比例呈趋增态势,表明我国城市化进程已转向市场导向的以城乡人口迁移为主的模式。

This article made an empirical study based on incremental data of China＇s urban population from 1985 to 2011 by decomposition and analysis of the various parts of the annual trends of population increment structure. The following conclusions are drown, from the mid-1980s to the beginning of this century,the annual increment caused by the town＇s new construction,expansion and urban regions re- drawing accounted for nearly 40% of the total increase of the urban population, which is higher than that of natural growth and rural-urban migration, and leads to the lag of the degree of urbanization and the subsequent development difficulties. Ever since 2005, the structure of urban population growth has al- ready tended to be reasonable,and the size of the new urban population and rural town of net immigra- tion population tended to be stable. The urban and rural migration constitutes the main part of the incre- mental urban population. The rural population in non-permanent rural-urban migration is a growing pro- portion, which shows that the process of urbanization in China has already turned to the mode of market- oriented and the rural-urban population migration.