大型体育赛事与城市经济增长的协整分析--以北京、济南和广州为例

Mega-sport Events and Cointegration Analysis of City Economic Growth——On the Case of Beijing,Jinan and Guangzhou

利用北京、济南和广州1978—2009年的面板数据,构筑与检验城市经济增长和其他相关变量的协整关系,进而估算了大型赛事(奥运会、全运会、亚运会)对城市经济的影响,得出以下结论:举办大型赛事可极大地拉动城市经济和社会的发展和进步;大型赛事对于举办地经济上贡献表现在赛事投资与赛事消费所引致的乘数效应和辐射效应,对于举办城市抑或区域产生扩展效应;实证分析数据结果表明,奥运会、全运会和亚运会对于对应举办地城市产生经济增长的效应分别为:1.50%,1.01%及1.09%。研究大型体育赛事与城市经济增长的协整关系,对于当前国民经济战略调整与结构升级,构筑区域经济发展与拓展绿色经济都有着重要理论与实践意义。

With the panel data of Beijing, Jinan and Guangzhou from 1978 through 2009, this paper uses a city e- conomic growth model and panel unit root and cointegration test to get the result that sport events can speed up the pace of industrial restructuring, stimulate the urban economic and social development and progress. Generally speaking, the mega-sport events to promote the economic effects and radiation effects have a significant effect for the city, region and even the whole country. Empirical analysis of data results show that the promotion effect of O- lympics, National Games, and Asian Games is 1.50% , 1.01% , 1.09% , respectively. This research has the im- portant value for the current national economy strategic adjustment and the upgrading of the structure and the de- velopment of green economy and regional economic.