冬期施工起止日期的概率确定法

The Probability Calculation Method to Determine Beginning and Ending Date for Winter Construction

根据《建筑工程冬期施工规程》(JGJ104-2011)的规定,运用概率论与数理统计的理论,确定了冬期施工的起始日期与结束日期是随机变量,并假设它成正态分布;以乌鲁木齐地区为例,通过新疆气象局提供的气象资料,做出频率直方图,验证了其是正态分布;计算出乌鲁木齐地区具有不同保证率的冬期施工的起始日期与结束日期,为该地区施工企业规避工程冻害风险,合理确定冬期施工的起始日期与结束日期提供了参考,也为总监理工程师控制工程冻害风险,审查施工企业编制的施工组织设计提供了理论依据。

The paper confirms that the beginning and ending dates of winter construction are random variables according to the Specification for Winter Construction of building engineering and assumes they both are normal distribution. In addition, taking example for Urumqi, the paper makes frequency histogram in accordance to the weather data provided by Xinjiang Weather Bureau and verifies it is normal distribution indeed. Finally, the beginning and ending date of winter construction in Urumqi area is calculated at different warranty which provides the reference for construction organizations to make reasonably the beginning and ending date of winter construction, preventing from risk of the engineering accidents of winter construction. Also the theory basis for supervision organizations to check the construction management plan of construction enterprises is provided, controlling the risk of the engineering accidents of winter construction.