虚拟水视角下的水资源承载力分析

Water resources carrying capacity from perspective of virtual water

为研究华北地区水资源的可持续发展能力,引入虚拟水作为评价华北地区水资源承载力的评价指标,探讨虚拟水战略的适用性及与水资源承载力的关系。以水资源总量、总供水量、年降水量等13个因子作为水资源承载力评价指标,运用主成分分析法对华北地区的水资源承载力进行综合评价。结果表明:影响水资源承载力的驱动因子主要为经济、人口和水资源及虚拟水净流量;华北地区水资源承载力处于波动上升的趋势;虚拟水是影响水资源承载力的重要因子,但虚拟水的引入不会改变水资源承载力的总体变化趋势。

To study the sustainable development capacity of water resources in North China,the virtual water is introduced to be the evaluation index of its water resources carrying capacity,and the applicability of the virtual water strategy as well as its relationship with the water resources carrying capacity is discussed.The principal component analysis is adopted to comprehensively evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in North China by taking 13 factors as the evaluation indices of the water resources carrying capacity,such as the total water resources,total supply and annual precipitation amount.The results show that the main driving factors to affect the water resources carrying capacity are economy,population,water resources and net flow of the virtual water.The water resources carrying capacity in North China is in a trend of fluctuation and increase.The virtual water is an important factor to affect the water resources carrying capacity,but the introduction of the virtual water will not change the overall change trend of the water resources carrying capacity.