城市污水排放的灰色马尔柯夫预测模型

Grey Markonian Model for Prediction of Urban Sewage Drainage

应用数据加载法提出了GM( 1 ,1 )的修正模型 ,通过灰色预测法和马尔柯夫链预测法的耦合 ,建立了城市污水排放量的灰色马尔柯夫预测模型 .灰色马尔柯夫预测模型具有灰色系统应用少量数据即可建模 ,以及马尔柯夫链预测可以预测数据值波动较大的序列的特点 .计算结果表明 。

This paper presents a high precision Grey Markovian Model on the basis of the grey theory and Markov theory. This model is used to forecast urban sewage drainage.The Grey Markovian Model is suitable for a few and wavy data. An example shows that the rseults of calculation are in good agreement with the measured data. Besides, a revised GM(1,1)model based on data loading is also discussed in this paper. The precision is also improved.