黄河下游悬河决口灾害的风险分析与评价

Risk analysis of dike breach in lower reaches of Yellow River

本文运用风险分析理论和方法 ,对黄河下游河南境内的若干河段进行了决口灾害的风险评价 .结果发现 ,鹅湾 -渠村河段发生决口灾害的风险最大 .文中的分析结果可为黄河下游悬河治理的优化决策、重点治理河段的科学确定提供重要依据和可靠保证 .

The theory and relevant method of risk analysis are applied to assess the risk of dike breach in the lower reaches of Yellow River within the territory of Henan Province. The most dangerous river section is found. The result provides the basis of river harnessing planning for river sections in which river bed is higher than the adjacent land behind the dike.