中国生育率转变中的数量和进度效应

Quantum and Tempo of Fertility in China

通过对总和生育率、去进度效应总和生育率及内在总和生育率的对比分析,对中国生育率转变过程中生育行为的结构进行剖析,对生育的数量效应、进度效应在生育率变动中的各自的作用进行定量分解。内在总和生育率在估计时期生育水平上,是比总和生育率和去进度效应总和生育率更好的指标,能够更准确测量生育的进度效应。结果表明1970年代我国生育率下降中的数量效应占比远超进度效应,达到3/4;1980年代数量效应的比例也达到2/3;1990年代,数量效应作用比例为略高于50%;而2000年以来数量效应和进度效应的作用此消彼长,总体而言,数量效应不足50%。1970年代,进度效应使总和生育率下降0.2～0.4;1980年代,进度效应很小;而1990年代以来,进度效应使总和生育率下降0.1～0.2。

This paper further examines China＇ s fertility transition by measuring the quantum and tempo of fertility using and comparing various fertility measures, including total fertility rate, tempo - ad- justed total fertility rate and intrinsic total fertility rate. The intrinsic total fertility rate developed by McDo- nald and Kippen controlling simultaneously age, parity and birth intervals, can capture more accurately the quantum and tempo effect in fertility decline. Results show that quantum effect accounts for more than 70 percent of fertility decline in China in the 1970s, which is decreased to over 60 percent in 1980s, slightly over 50 percent in the 1990s and lower than 50 percent in the 2000s. Tempo effect stood at O. 2 -0. 4 birth per woman in the 1970s, while very small in the 1980s. In the recent decade, a decline of fertility by O. 1 -O. 2 birth per woman is due to tempo effect.