人口老龄化另一种测量指标

An Alternative Measurement of Population Ageing

随着劳动年龄人口"拐点"的出现,我国人口老龄化问题更加得到有关方面广泛、高度的重视。按照传统的办法,用65岁(或60岁)以上人口比例度量人口老龄化,不能反映人口期望寿命提高等因素的影响。从期望余寿的角度界定"前瞻年龄"和老年人口,可以较好地解决这一问题。文章设计了"前瞻年龄"65岁以上(以2000年为参照系)人口比例以及期望余寿15岁以下人口比例两个统计口径,据此计算了2000～2050年我国人口老龄化的演变情况。按新的测量指标计算,我国人口老龄化程度和人口抚养比明显低于传统指标,预计到本世纪中叶老年人口比例比传统测量指标低4～5个百分点。只有在全面认识的基础上及时采取综合策略,才能科学应对人口老龄化。

Since the year 2012 saw a turning point of China＇ s working age population, the issue of population ageing has increasingly been attached wide - spread significance to China＇ s economic growth and national development. In measuring population ageing, the traditional indicator of percent- age aged 65 （or 60） or over fails to capture the influence on ageing of the increased life expectancy. Therefore, new measurement of ageing needs to be considered from the perspective of ＂prospective age＂ by which expected remaining years of life can be taken into account. Two indicators, i. e., per- centage of the elderly with prospective age of 65 or over （with the year 2000 as reference） and propor- tion of the elderly with remaining life expectancy below 15 （ inclusive）, are computed for China over the period from 2000 to 20.50 using China＇ s census and survey data and population projections. In terms of the new measurement, levels of ageing and dependency ratio in China would be much lower, and the pace of ageing much slower, with the proportion of the elderly in the mid - century being 4 - 5 percent- age points less than that from the traditional measurement. A comprehensive understanding and thus holistic strategies are necessary to better achieve healthy ageing.