中国人口年龄结构与居民消费关系的比较分析

Comparative Analysis on the Relationship between Population Age Structure and Household Consumption in China

老龄化对老龄人口自身消费将产生影响;老龄化通过影响储蓄率、劳动供给、劳动生产率、经济增长将间接作用于消费需求。实证分析表明:收入对居民消费支出的影响显著,收入越低的地方边际消费倾向越大;老年抚养比的提高是导致居民消费降低的一个重要原因。城乡比较显示:人口老龄化的提高显著降低了城市居民的消费支出,而对农村居民的影响不显著;少儿抚养比的提高显著增加了城乡居民的消费支出;老年负担率的提高显著降低了城镇居民的消费支出,而对农村居民的影响比较微弱。东中西部地区比较表明:人口老龄化对居民消费的影响由大到小依次是东部、中部、西部;少儿抚养比对居民消费的影响由大到小为中部、西部、东部;老年负担率对居民消费的影响由大到小为东部、中部、西部。

The aging of population has impacts on the consumption of the aged population. By af- fecting the savings rate, labor supply, labor productivity, economic growth, aging will be indirectly in- fluencing consumer demand. The empirical analysis shows that the effect of income on household con- sumption is significant, that is the lower the income, the greater the propensity of marginal consump- tion; the increase of the elderly dependency ratio is an important factor in reducing household con- sumption. A comparison of urban and rural areas shows that population aging significantly reduces consumption expenditure of urban residents while the effect for rural residents is not significant; rising child dependency ratio significantly increases consumption expenditure of both urban and rural resi- dents. A comparison of eastern, central and western areas suggests that the descending order of the effect of population aging on household consumption is east, central and west areas; the descending order of the effect of child dependency ratio on household consumption is central, west and east areas; while the descending order of the effect of elderly dependency ratio on household consumption is east, central and west areas in China.