人口变化与经济增长：中国与印度的比较研究

Population Dynamics and Economic Growth: A Comparative Study between China and India

中国和印度在人口和经济发展方面有很多共同点,但人口特征及变化趋势又有很多不同,这将对两国经济的可持续发展带来不同影响。文章采用历史增长核算法,将经济增长分解为三个贡献要素,即劳动年龄人口规模的增长、劳动生产率的增长及劳动力利用效率的增长,对中国和印度过去20年的人口与经济变化进行实证研究,结果表明劳动生产率的提升是中国经济增长的最主要动力,而劳动生产率的提升和劳动年龄人口增长同为印度经济增长的主要动力,劳动力利用效率的下降对两国的经济增长贡献度均为负。文章认为,为应对我国未来劳动力减少的挑战,在非充分就业率较高且产业升级要求迫切之时,应寻求降低非充分就业率,力求真正提升劳动力的利用率,并积极关注第二次人口红利的实现。

Although China and India share many common characteristics in population and econom- ic development, there are many demographic differences which are affecting economic development to both countries in different ways. Applying data of population and economy over past twenty years, this paper conducts an empirical comparative study of population and economic development in the two countries. Increase of labor force productivity is the major driving force of economic growth in China, while the increase of labor force productivity combined with the increase of working - age population are the main driving forces in India. Moreover, falling labor force utilization has negative contribution to economic growth in both China and India. Against the challenges of decreasing labor force size in the future, lowering non - full employment rate and improving labor force utilization could be efficient policy responses under the background of high non - full employment rate and urgent demands of updating industry structure.