装备制造业与生产性服务业产业关联研究——基于中国投入产出表的比较分析

Study on Industrial Relevancy between Machinery Industry and Producer Services: Based on the Comparative Analysis of China Input-Output Table

本文以1997、2002、2007年中国投入产出表为基础,分别对装备制造业和生产性服务业的产出比重、增加值率、装备制造业中生产性服务投入程度、生产性服务业被装备制造业需求的程度、影响力系数和感应度系数等进行比较分析。结果表明:我国装备制造业和生产性服务业的比重总体还很低,其中生产性服务业比重在下降,而装备制造业比重在上升,但增加值率在大幅下降;装备制造业的发展主要靠物质性投入并大幅上升,生产性服务投入严重不足并大幅度下降;装备制造业对生产性服务业中间需求率很低,但是对研究与实验发展业和综合技术服务业中间需求增长很快,对信息传输、计算机服务及软件业的中间需求率大幅下降。装备制造业具有很强的前向关联和后向关联效应,传统生产性服务业中的交通运输及仓储业、批发及零售业和金融业的前向关联比较大。研究结论对如何实现从"中国制造"向"中国创造"的转变具有现实参考意义。

Based on the input-output tables of China in 1997,2002 and 2007, the paper compares the sectors of machinery industry and producer services in terms of the proportion of the output , value added rate, rate of intermediate inputs,intermedi- ate demand rate, influence coefficient and induct coefficient, and then analyzes the relationship among them. The results show that ： it is still very low for the proportion of machinery industry and producer services in China. The proportion of producer serv- ices is declining,and in that case,the machinery industry has the opposite result. There has been a sharp decline in the value- added rate of the machinery industry. The development of machinery industry is mainly on material input and has increased greatly and producer services show shortage in machinery industry. For research and experimental development industry and comprehensive technical service, the intermediate demand rate for machinery industry is increasing fast. And for information transmission,computer services and software industry, the intermediate demand rate is decreasing sharply. The machinery in- dustry has a strong effect of forward and backward linkages, and the forward linkage of producer services is more extensive in transportation and warehousing ,wholesale and retail trade and financial industry.