基于风电功率概率预测和运行风险约束的含风电场电力系统动态经济调度

Dynamic Economic Dispatch of Wind Integrated Power System Based on Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting and Operation Risk Constraints

随着风电并网容量持续增加,风电出力不确定性对电力系统安全运行影响也不断加大,传统的确定性经济调度方法难以满足电力系统安全运行需求。在风电功率概率预测的基础上,应用机会约束规划理论建立了考虑系统运行风险约束的含风电场电力系统动态经济调度模型,将风电场出力视为具有不确定概率的随机变量,直观地给出系统运行的薄弱环节和潜在风险,为调度人员权衡燃料成本和运行风险提供理论参考。提出应用序列运算理论与遗传算法相结合的混合智能算法对模型进行求解,提高了模型的求解速度。含风电场的IEEE 30节点系统算例验证了提出调度模型的正确性以及求解算法的有效性。

With the continuous increasing of wind power in the system, the uncertainty of wind power may threaten the security of the power grid. The traditional deterministic economic dispatch method can＇t meet the safety operation requirement of power system anymore. Based on the wind power probabilistic forecasting, a stochastic model for dynamic economic dispatch was proposed based on chance-constrained programming. The operation risk constraints and the uncertainty of wind power were considered in the model. Thus, the weak link and potential risk of system operating was displayed directly, and a theoretical reference to weigh the fuel cost and operating risk was presented for operators. The sequence operation theory and genetic algorithm were applied to solve the model with significant time saving. The simulation results in IEEE 30-bus system with wind farms validate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed method.