经济危机与货币政策共识的形成和修正:从大萧条到大缓和再到大衰退

The Economic Crisis with the Formation and Amendment of the Monetary Policy Jackson Hole Consensus: from the Great Depression to the Great Moderation and the Great Contraction

西方中央银行家形成的货币政策"杰克逊·霍尔共识"是基于发生在美国本土的大萧条、大通货膨胀、大衰退等历次危机和美国过去经历的总结和修订。文章通过文献的梳理发现,每次大的世界经济危机总与人类系统性的错误观念相伴,西方货币政策共识对非主流国家经济实践和经济危机重视不够。本次危机告诉我们面对不确定性世界,经济学家还存在很多不知道,甚至自己也不知道"自己不知道"。因此我们认为业已构成货币政策共识的智慧还远远不够,各国中央银行家要以一个婴孩眼光看世界,不要笃信某种教条,不拘泥于过去成功的货币政策教条,善于总结各国危机的教训。

The Jackson Hole Consensus monetary policy that is accepted by all central bankers is based on A- merican lessons including the great depression, the great inflation, the great moderation and successful practice, and it pay less attention to other countries＇ experiences. The subprime crisis shows that central bankers do not know a lot of things, but also they do not even know they do not know them. What we have learned in the past is not enough; central bankers must view the world with a child＇s eyes, free themselves from the monetary policy beliefs that were successful in the past, and learn lessons from all countries.