基本面关联还是市场恐慌?——金融危机跨国传染渠道的文献综述及其警示

The Channels of International Financial Contagion: Review of the Literature

文章重点总结、梳理了金融危机传染渠道领域理论与实证方面的最新研究成果。各国经济基本面之间的相互关联性是危机传染的关键渠道,尤其是银行信贷、证券投资和私人资本流动等金融关联性扮演着越来越重要的角色。投资者情绪及其非理性行为也可能在危机传染中起到重要作用。在一定程度上,金融危机传染性难以避免,但一个国家可以通过改善自身的宏观经济状况、提高宏观政策应对能力,以增强抵御外部风险的能力。全球范围内积极有效的政策协调与合作,对于控制危机传染的可能性及传染程度也至关重要。

This paper reviews the latest theoretical and empirical literature on contagion of financial crises. The in- terdependence of countries＇ economic fundamentals is an important transmission channel ,especially financial link- ages such as bank lending, securities investment, and capital flow plays a more and more significant role in conta- gion. Investor sentiment and irrational behavior might also play a role. To a certain extent, there is no way to fully insulate countries from contagion, but countries could improve the soundness of their domestic economy and en- hance the ability of macro policy to provide some protection against external shocks. Positive and effective policy coordination and collaboration between countries is crucial to control the possibility and the extent of contagion.