山区铁路路基工程风险识别与管理研究

Risk Identification and Management for Subgrade Engineering of Mountain Railway

研究目的:基于工程风险理论,开展山区铁路路基工程风险的识别和评估研究,并根据风险评估和评价采取相应的风险预防和控制等应对措施。研究结论:(1)采用改进的层次分析法和专家打分法,可从定性分析和定量对比中得到风险因素的权重和风险值的排序;(2)采用敏感性分析,可找出导致风险事件的主控因素及风险因素的影响规律;(3)模糊综合评价法可用于山区铁路路基工程风险的评估与评价;(4)通过风险相互关系图可找到指向终极风险的主要路径和可能的路径。(5)通过本研究形成的山区铁路路基工程风险识别与管理思路,对设计、施工和运营中识别和管理路基工程风险具有指导意义。

Research purposes： Based on the theory of engineering risk, risk identification and evaluation for subgrade engineering of mountain railway were studied. And aeeording to the assessment and evaluation for the risk, the risk prevention and control measures were adopted.Research conclusions：（ 1 ） By using analytic hierarchy process method and expert scoring method, the weight and ordering of risk factors can be get from the qualitative analysis and quantitative comparison. （2） By using sensitivity analysis method, the main controlling factors of the risk events and the influence law of the risk factors can be found out. （3） Paste comprehensive evaluation method can be used to assess and evaluate the risk of roadbed of mountain railway. （4） The main path and possible path to ultimate risk can be found out from the risk mutual relationship diagram. （5） The ideas of risk identification and management for railway subgrade construction that formed from this paper＇ s research, has a guiding significance for design, construction and operation.