新疆县域经济格局时空演变研究

Spatio-temporal evolvement of economic development of Xinjiang at the county level

利用六个年份新疆各县级行政单元人均GDP数据,提取县级行政中心的几何中心,通过地统计分析建立了县级行政单元人均GDP表面模型,在此基础上进行了人均GDP空间分布相关与变异分析。结果表明:(1)新疆各县、市人均GDP在特定方向上有一定的空间趋势。(2)自1949年始,新疆县域经济的空间相关性是逐渐增强的;至2008年,经济发展水平已达到强的空间相关性。随机因素对新疆各县、市的经济发展水平的空间变异的作用越来越小;一些特定的客观因素的内在机制的作用越来越大。(3)新疆县域经济格局由1949年的相对均衡状态逐步演变为越来越集中分布的格局。(4)上述关于新疆县域经济的空间相关及变异特征的判断,对于揭示其空间格局演变的机制提供了可行性支持。

Using the date of 6 years＇ census from 1949 to 2008 and the map of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,we extracted the geometry center of counties and formed the surface model of GDP per capita of counties based on geostatistical analysis.We reached some conclusions according to spatial correlation and variation analysis：（1） There existed a determinate spatial trend for counties＇ GDP per capita in Xinjiang.（2） The spatial correlation of counties＇ GDP per capita of Xinjiang had increased since 1949,and the spatial correlation had become strong in 2008.There was a inherent mechanism from specific objective factors which arouse spatial correlation and the effect of inherent mechanism increased stronger.（3） The spatial pattern of counties＇ GDP per capita of Xinjiang changed from relative balance in 1949 to relative centralized state in 2008.The tendency of Xinjiang＇s regional economy was that developed area expanded from Karamay City-Urumqi City to south-eastern Korla City,Shanshan County,Hami City Hami City;and that under-developed area expanded from Hotan-Kashgar Administrative Offices to a low level area which circled Hotan Administrative Offices and stretches north-ward＇s to Kashgar Administrative Offices and Aksu Administrative Offices.