农业旱灾适应性评价与适应模式研究——以山西省大同县为例

Assessment of agricultural drought adaptability and adaptation model research——A case of Datong County in Shanxi Province

随着旱灾发生的频次和强度不断增加,对雨养农业区农户生产生活造成的影响也日益加剧,采取合理的适应措施减少旱灾造成损失、减轻旱灾风险成为当前研究的重点。在前人灾害研究的基础上,提出了农业旱灾适应性的评价思路,构建了农业旱灾适应性的综合评价指标体系和模型,选择了北方农牧交错带以雨养农业为主的大同县作为典型研究区,在实地考察、统计数据分析和入户访谈等基础上,基于县和乡镇不同评价单元进行适应性评价,结果表明:加强生态环境的建设、合理有效改善水利设施以及非农产业的发展有利于提高该地区的农业旱灾适应性。最后,基于对大同县的农业旱灾适应性评价和适应策略的实证分析,从环境演变与应对策略之间相互关系的角度,分析总结出农业旱灾适应模式,即传统适应模式、当前适应模式和未来优化适应模式。

With the drought situation of increasing frequency and intensity in the north of China,effect of farmer household production and life in the rain-fed agriculture area is increasing.Taking reasonable adaptation measures to reduce drought losses and reduce drought risk becomes the current focus of the study.Based on previous disaster research,we presented the evaluation method of agricultural drought adaptability,build assessment index and model of agricultural drought adaptability.Assessment of agricultural drought adaptability was carried out through choose Datong County as a case from rain-fed agriculture area of the farming-pastoral zone in the North of China on county and township scale.The results show that to strengthen the ecological environment construction,reasonable and effective improvement of irrigation facilities and non-agricultural industries will enhance the region＇s agricultural drought adaptation.Finally,based on the result of agricultural drought adaptability assessment and empirical analysis of the adaptation strategies on Datong County,from the relationship between the environment evolution and coping strategies,we drew the conclusions of agricultural drought adaptation mode,namely traditional adaptation mode,and presented the adaptation mode,and the optimal adaptation mode.