人口抚养比对国民储蓄的长期动态影响研究

The Long-term Dynamic Effects of the Dependency Ratio to National Savings

中国的高储蓄现象举世瞩目。1978年以来,在中国经济快速增长的过程中,国民储蓄水平不断上升,与此同时人口抚养比发生了巨大的变化,因此,探讨人口抚养比变化与国民储蓄之间的联系是分析中国高国民储蓄原因的重要方面。本文采用1978～2008年时间序列数据,利用VECM模型,研究人口抚养比变化与国民储蓄的长期动态关系,发现:1978年以来,总抚养比下降引起了国民储蓄上升,其中,少儿抚养比对国民储蓄具有显著的负向影响,老年抚养比对国民储蓄影响不显著。从影响时间看,总抚养比变化对国民储蓄影响时间约为20年,其中主要影响发生在前6年。随着总抚养比的逆转,国民储蓄将逐渐下降,高储蓄只是中国经济发展特定时期的现象。

China＇s high savings phenomenon is remarkable. Since 1978, with the process of China＇s rapid economic growth, the level of national savings has risen dramatically, and the dependency ratio has undergone tremendous change at the same time. Therefore, exploring the link between the dependency ratio changes and national saving is an important aspect for the analysis of China＇ s high national saving reasons. In this paper, we use the 1978 -2008 time-series data and the VECM model to study the long-term dynamic relationship between the population dependency ratio change and the national savings. We find that since 1978, the total dependency ratio decline cause the increase in national savings. The total dependency ratio change has a long-term effect on national savings, its effect last about 20 years, As the total dependency ratio decline, national temporary in China＇ s developing process.