区域气候变化对中国人口死亡率的影响——基于面板数据的研究

The Effect of the Regional Climate Change on the Death Rate in China:Based on the Panel Data Analysis

文章构建了气候变化影响人口死亡率的面板模型,利用分段函数方法得到气候变化的代理变量,采用我国2004～2010年的日平均降雨量、日平均气温和人口死亡率的省域数据,建立了气候变化影响我国居民人口死亡率的面板模型。研究发现,人口死亡率—气温曲线呈现U型,并且曲线左低右高,在5～10℃区间人口死亡率最低,高温时病菌等更容易损害人体免疫力和抵抗力,导致人口死亡率增加。同时区域经济发达程度能够显著地影响人口死亡率,区域人均GDP每增加1万元能够降低人口死亡率0.1342人/千人,更高的生活质量和医疗服务条件是经济发展降低人口死亡率的重要原因。最后本文对模型进行了6种形式的扩展,发现模型具有良好的稳健性。

Based on the data by area from 2004 to 2010, this paper established a panel model of climate change on the death rate in China, making use of piecewise function as the proxy variable. We find that the death rate-temperature curve can be shaped by U curve, which is higher in the right than left. The lowest death rate appears from 5℃ to 10℃. At high temperature the germs can destroy immune defenses easier, so it leads to the higher death rate. Regional economic development impacts the death rate obviously, as the increase of per capita GDP reaches ten thousand RMB, the death rate goes down by 0. 1342people/one thousand people. The key factor to reduce the death rate is quality of life and medical conditions of service. In the end, we make six kinds of extension of the basic model, and find that the model has good robustness .