1990-2010年西北地区县域人口数量与空间集疏变化时空分析

Spatio-temporal variations of population and population distribution with data at county level in Northwest China in 1990-2010

基于分县人口普查数据,对1990年以来西北地区县域人口数量增减和人口空间集疏变化情况进行了时空分析。通过研究认为:1)西北地区人口总量继续增加和空间分布不均衡的格局态势仍将延续;2)人口显著增加(或流入)地区和一般减少(或流出)地区人口比例均有所增加;3)人口数量增减趋于频繁,人口空间集疏过程日趋激烈;4)自然环境和经济发展决定人口数量增减和空间集疏变化;5)地级市辖区及其周边人口变化最为激烈,城市必将成为未来吸纳西北人口集聚的主要载体,但人口外迁趋势也在所难免。

Based on the population data at county level,the spatio-temporal variations of population size and population concentration decentralization in Northwest China in recent 20 years were studied.The results showed that：（1） The total population continues to increase and the uneven pattern of population distribution will intensify in the next decades;（2） The proportion of population have a significant increase in the region where the population obviously increased or population generally reduced,so as the population obviously inflow areas and the population in general outflow areas;（3）From the results it can be concluded that the county total population growth reduce tend to be frequently and population concentration decentralization get to be strengthen;（4）As the key factors affecting population growth reduce and population concentration decentralization on space,natural environment and economic development will still work in the future;（5） As the urbanization become a overwhelming trend in the country,the most dramatic population changes occurred in the major cities and its surrounding counties and cities in the Northwest region can not be an exception and will become the main carrier to absorb large number of surplus labor and more and more people will settle in the city,but despite this the population out-migration is inevitable according to the environmental capacity.