基于指数平滑法的呼、包、鄂三角区物流需求量预测

Prediction of logistics demand based on exponential smoothing model for Hohhot,Baotou and Ordos

在确定使用何种方法进行物流需求量预测时,首先考虑了使用多元线性回归法建立预测模型,但预测过程中发现这一方法比较复杂,并且要求获取大量的数据,对数据的要求较高。综合考虑各方面的因素,选用操作简单、计算量小的指数平滑法进行预测。根据呼、包、鄂三角区物流需求量的实际情况并结合指数平滑预测模型对物流需求量进行短期预测,在一定程度上能够为呼、包、鄂三角区十二五期间的物流产业基础设施建设提供决策依据,并在此基础上希望为整个区域物流需求量预测提供科学依据。

In this paper,we used exponential smoothing method to forecast the logistics demand.This method is simple and it needs small amount of calculation.According to the actual situation of the logistics demand,and linking it to the exponential smoothing model,we forecasted the short-term logistics demand.We hope our paper could provide basis for decision making of logistics industry infrastructure and demand forecasting for the entire regional logistics.