黄河源区水文水资源对气候变化的响应

Responses of hydrology and water resources to the climate change in the Yellow River source region

气候变化是目前世界各国科学工作者关注的重要问题之一。以黄河源区为研究区,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Spearman秩次检验相关法分析了过去60年降水、气温及径流的变化趋势;利用十套情景数据驱动大尺度分布式VIC模型,分析了黄河源区未来径流和土壤含水量的可能变化。结果表明:黄河源区年平均气温呈显著上升的趋势,高于全球地表平均升温速率;日最低气温比日平均气温和日最高气温增加显著;年降水量呈微弱增加趋势,年径流量呈微弱减少趋势,两者变化趋势都不显著;未来全球变化条件下黄河源区径流和土壤含水量将有可能呈减少态势,发生干旱的可能性进一步加大,将会对工农牧业生产构成威胁。

Variations of precipitation, temperature and runoff in Yellow River source region over past 60 years were analyzed with Mann - Kendall and Spearman method. Based on the ten climate scenarios, responses of hydrological process to climate change were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. Results indicated that recorded temperature in the Yellow River source region presented significant increasing trend during past 60 years. The daily minimum temperature presented higher increasing trend than the daily maximum temperature. Annual gross precipitation presented minor increasing, and the runoff presented minor decreasing. The runoff and soil moisture will likely undergo decreasing trend in the future. The much more drought may threaten the social development in this region in the future.