中国土地财政的影响因素与区域差异特征——基于省际面板数据的实证研究

Influential Factors and Regional Differences of China's Land Finance:An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

土地财政已经成为当前我国宏观经济运行中的突出问题之一。本文首先从历史条件、地方政府的收支约束和制度环境三方面对我国地方土地财政的形成原因展开理论分析,然后对土地财政收入增长和差异的动态原因进行实证研究,分析影响区域特征差异的主要因素。研究发现,经济发展因素和制度变化因素均是影响中国土地财政变动的重要方面;土地财政收入增长具有明显的路径依赖特征,前期的增长会形成惯性而影响后期的增长;在不同发展水平的地区,土地财政在地方财政缺口、腐败程度、区域竞争和土地融资等方面存在差异,而在二元土地制度、财政信息披露程度、经济增长和城市化等方面的影响显著,只是程度不同。政府在解决土地财政问题时,应根据不同地区的发展特点实施差别的调控政策。

In recent years, land finance has become one of the prominent problems in China＇s macroecono- my. The proportion of land finance in the local government revenue is so large that local governments are highly de- pendent on revenues from land sales, especially for the developed areas in China. This paper uses economic theory to analyze the influential factors of China＇s local land finance, and then establishes Chinese provincial panel data econ- ometric models for empirical study. It focuses on analyzing the dynamic changes of local fiscal revenues growth and its differences, and explores the influential rules under the changes in space and time. In the end, some policy sug- gestions are put forward. The following are the main creative points. Under the existing system of tax, land and politics, this paper analyzes the influential factors of land finance from the following aspects ： historical conditions, the income and the payout of local finance, and institutional envi- ronment. The causes show as follows ： Firstly, China＇s tax system reform has led to the responsibility of the local gov- ernment does not match its financial rights, and it gives rise to a situation of the extremely shortage of local govern- ment finances. Secondly, duality land system is the essential reason of the land finance problem. Under duality land system, local governments can easily collect rural land at a very low price, and become the supply monopolist in land market. By the mode of ＂land collection, and then sell＂ ,local governments can get big financial revenue from land transaction. Thirdly, in the process of Chinese reform and development, the promotion incentives and land finance played a crucial role. And they made an important contribution for social and economic development. In the early stage of economic development, land finance has made some contributions to local infrastructure construction and e- conomic growth. However, with the rapid development of local and regional economy in China, the hazards of land fi- nance begin to appear during these years and become one of the important factors of hindering social economic de- velopment. Base on the analysis above, this paper selects some relevant indexes and sets up different estimation methods, including static regression model and dynamic regression model. Then by using China＇s 30 provinces data,it applies GMM method to estimate the models. The conclusions about influential factors and regional differences of China＇s land finance are the same generally in both static model and dynamic model. The results are just as follows： Firstly, the effects of influential factors on land financial revenue vary with time and space. Land financial revenue growth is significantly characterized by route dependence and the early growth will affect the latter growth owing to the inertia. Secondly, for the regions with different levels of economic development, there are different effects of local fis- cal gap, corruption levels, regional competition, and land financing on land finance, while there are significant effects of duality land system, the disclosure of fiscal information, economic growth and urbanization, but merely a difference of degree. Thirdly, local land finance in China has some remarkable regional characteristics ： （ 1 ） Land price and real estate price in developed regions are much higher than those in underdeveloped regions. Under duality land system, with stronger regional competition and land financing, developed regions are more easily to get land financial reve- nues than underdeveloped regions. （2） For lack of transparency in underdeveloped regions, the activities of land ren- ting and corruption make local government increase its reliance on land finance. Therefore, by solving the problems of land finance, the government should take account of the difference of local economic development and take meas- ures in regions consistent with their development levels.