理性预期机制下资产价格波动对通货膨胀预期的动态影响

在分析通货膨胀预期理性预期形成机制的基础上,利用Calvo(1980)的交错契约模型,通过建立动态分布滞后模型,证明我国通货膨是基于理性预期和混合式新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的最终决定方程,既有前瞻性又有后顾性是我国通货膨胀预期的重要特点。我国通货膨胀的与资产价格密切相关,资产价格上涨能引起通货膨胀预期上升,包括产出、消费、投资和资产价格波动预期等会影响通货膨胀预期,最后给出相应通胀预期管理的对策建议。

In this paper, the inflation expectation mechanism is based on the rational expectation hypothesis. By means of the staggered contract model proposed by Calvo （1980）, a dynamic distributed lag model is established, which proves that China＇s inflation equation is dependent on rational expectations and the Hybrid New Keynesianism Phillips Curve, and China＇ s inflation ex- pectation is characterized in particular by forward -looking and backward-looking behaviors. The article also discovers that China＇ s inflation and asset prices are closely related, and the rise of asset prices could cause rising inflation expectations. In addition, GDP output, gross consumption, gross investment and asset price fluctuation all exert an influence on inflation expectation. Finally, the article proposes the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the management of inflation expectation.