摘要
为检验实际利率对家庭储蓄行为的影响,本文运用2000-2010年中国31个省市的面板数据,发现实际利率和城镇居民储蓄率之间显著负相关,而且,2004-2010年这一子样本时期,相对2000-2003年这一子样本时期,储蓄与利率的负相关性在统计上更为显著。这表明,中国家庭存在一个目标储蓄水平。当实际利率下降时,会降低储蓄的回报,人们会被迫减少当前消费、增加储蓄来实现目标财富水平。
The paper uses the panel data of 31Chinese provinces during the period from 2000 to 2010 to test the effect of the real interest rate on households' saving behaviors.The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between the real interest rate and the saving rate of urban residents.Compared with the subsample period 2000-2003,the negative correlation between savings and interest is more significant statistically over the subsample period 2004-2010.This indicates that there is a target saving rate in China.The drop of interest rate will lower the return on savings,which makes people reduce the current consumption and increase savings to realize target wealth level.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第3期11-22,124,共12页
Modern Economic Science
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(12BGJ042)
国家自然科学基金应急项目"欧洲主权债务危机的影响及对策研究"(71241017)
2012年教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"
中央财经大学青年科研创新团队"系统性金融风险的识别
度量与管理"的资助
关键词
目标储蓄
城镇居民储蓄率
实际利率
利率市场化
Target Saving
Urban Residents' Saving Rate
Real Interest Rate
Marketization of Interest Rate