中国实际利率对家庭储蓄行为影响的实证分析

The Positive Analysis on the Effect of Chinese Real Interest Rate on Households' Saving Behaviors——The Empirical Test Based on Chinese Drovincial Panel Data from 2000 to 2010)

为检验实际利率对家庭储蓄行为的影响,本文运用2000-2010年中国31个省市的面板数据,发现实际利率和城镇居民储蓄率之间显著负相关,而且,2004-2010年这一子样本时期,相对2000-2003年这一子样本时期,储蓄与利率的负相关性在统计上更为显著。这表明,中国家庭存在一个目标储蓄水平。当实际利率下降时,会降低储蓄的回报,人们会被迫减少当前消费、增加储蓄来实现目标财富水平。

The paper uses the panel data of 31Chinese provinces during the period from 2000 to 2010 to test the effect of the real interest rate on households' saving behaviors.The results show that there is a significant negative correlation between the real interest rate and the saving rate of urban residents.Compared with the subsample period 2000-2003,the negative correlation between savings and interest is more significant statistically over the subsample period 2004-2010.This indicates that there is a target saving rate in China.The drop of interest rate will lower the return on savings,which makes people reduce the current consumption and increase savings to realize target wealth level.