上市公司的盈利信息能指导股票投资决策吗——一个边际条件随机占优分析

Can Listed Companies' Profit Information Guide Stock Investment Decision-making?——A Stochastic Dominance Analysis of Marginal Condition

本文将A股上市公司按照盈利信息划分为相应的投资组合,使用边际条件随机占优规则检验投资组合内的占优关系,从而判断盈利信息对股票投资决策的指导作用。结果表明,长期来看,绩优股既能占优市场,又能占优微利股和亏损股,且占优关系随着市场体制和政策的健全而加强,说明盈利信息存在一定的信息含量;在不同检验周期内,各组合间均存在显著的占优关系,说明上市公司的盈利信息能够在一定程度上指导投资决策。

This paper classifies A share listed companies into corresponding investment portfolios according to profit information and tests the dominance relationship within investment portfolios by using the stochastic dominance rule of marginal condition to judge the guiding role played by the profit information of listed companies in stock investment decision-making.The result indicates that in the long run the blue chip stocks can not only dominate market but also dominate the stocks that earn a little profit and the stocks that suffer losses.The dominance relationship will be strengthened as the market system and policies are sound,which shows that the profit information has certain information content.In different test cycles,significant dominance relationship exists among portfolios,which shows that the profit information of listed companies can guide investment decision-making to some degree.